According to the third quarter oil price outlook, the oil market is likely to remain in a narrow price range. In particular, the movement around the descending trend line from June 2022 is of interest. Recently, there have been brief instances of prices exceeding that line, but it is difficult to say that it is stable. If the current level can be maintained until the end of the month, the bulls may aim for the top of the medium-term range at $82.90. Above that is the psychological resistance line of $83.
On the other hand, the retracement support at $80.14 is close to the current market price, and if it breaks below this level, a drop to the $76 region is possible. Since November 2022, there have been temporary movements up and down the current wide range, but unless there are major fundamental changes in the near future, it is unlikely to leave this range for a long period of time.
Brent Crude Oil, as an international benchmark, can move differently from WTI at times, especially as it is vulnerable to the energy effects of the Ukraine conflict. The topic this year has been the decline in volatility, with the market trapped in a tight range between the descending and ascending trend lines.
Like WTI, Brent crude oil is showing signs of momentum at the end of the second quarter and could retest the $90+ peak if it continues into the next three months, but caution is advised at the higher end unless other indices see a similar breakout.
Overall, the outlook for crude oil prices in Q3 is that prices are likely to continue to move in a narrow range. Unless there is a major change in market activity, trading within the current range is likely to continue. Therefore, traders should keep this in mind and pay close attention to price movements.